Survival Initiative. A Nigerian puzzle - How did they get Avian Flu

Nigeria - Where did their H5N1 infection come from?

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An African Puzzle - Migratory Birds and Nigeria - 28/3/2006

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How did H5N1 get to Nigeria? The popular argument is that it arrived via migrating wild birds. Surely this would have shown up in cases reported in Sudan and Chad, the intervening countries between Egypt and Nigeria. Chad has the longest coast on Lake Chad, which is the major migratory and winter stopover point for Asian and European birds.

On the 8th December 2005, Dr Michael Rands, Director & Chief Executive of Bird Life International, stated that Migrating Wild Birds have been given the all clear. They cannot be vectors (carriers) of the virus because the autumn migration has finished and there are no reported cases in Africa and no new ones in South Asia. This was maintained as proof that Wild Birds were merely victims of the Avian Influenza epidemic.

It seems that he spoke too soon because shortly afterwards, as a result of the extremely cold weather in Siberia, Swans, Ducks & Geese started appearing in southern & western Europe with H5N1, this after several reports of major wild bird die offs from this strain of Avian Flu in China and Turkey along major migration routes. Almost simultaneously Nigeria reported the disease, becoming the first of three new countries in Africa to confirmed H5N1, Egypt having already had H5N1 since February this year.

The overwhelming European evidence was that Wild Birds indeed were one of the vectors for the spread of this disease, and a significant one at that. But we are left with a puzzle. How did this fatal disease get as far as Nigerian Niger and Cameroon without leaving evidence in some of those countries the birds must have passed through to get there? Because the disease has shown the ability to kill birds within a few days, we should have had some indication in the intervening countries.

We are still investigating whether avian products had been imported from infected zones but so far we have drawn a blank. Another more logical reason would be that the birds fly over remote arid regions that are still in decades old conflicts. Those in the Darfur region Sudan have far more serious concerns than a few dead birds and eastern Chad has been in a war-like state for years. There may be a hidden crisis in these regions because of the possibility that poultry is infected and also that starving people may eat an infected wild bird.

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One would have hoped that in some of these areas, particularly Lake Chad, would have had in-situ medical personnel, wildlife and birding enthusiasts or a veterinarian who could have reported unusual, but apart from an obscure rumour emanating from Chad, things have been quiet from these regions. The Food & Health Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations is currently conducting a major sampling of wild birds in this and other African bird Wintering regions. If these results prove positive for the disease then the another major concern is that the Spring return of these birds to Europe and Asia could scatter the disease over a wider area.

A little research on our part has picked up on a couple of notable events that seem to fill some gaps but these have subsequently faded into obscurity. One was a report, on the 6th March, of a cluster of hundreds of dead birds found in north Kenya shortly after the Nigerian outbreak. Following this was the report of around 260 bird deaths (unusually precise - Why not around 200 or 250?) on the 19th March this year in Congo.

It was around this time that the Mali government said that they were gearing up their health measures to protect against a possible infection from Chad. Why Chad - when between Mali and Chad lie two already infected countries? In fairness they may have been thinking about the Spring migration northwards from Lake Chad, which is arguably the largest migration stop-off point in Africa, but there was little reference to either of the infected countries directly on their borders which both have Wild Bird wintering areas. At the same time an interesting rumour supposedly coming from a Chad resident referred to suspicious bird deaths.

Because of the remoteness of these areas, a lack of public awareness and the obvious communication difficulties, it is possible that this disease had indeed spread south during the migration a few months ago and that it is only now that the evidence is emerging once it starts hitting personal & valuable poultry. A bunch of dead waders is unlikely to generate any more that local village conversation. Nigeria's own case was first detected on the 10th January but took nearly a month to confirm.

There has also been evidence that sensitive or perceived embarrassing information in some African countries has been suppressed in the past. Whether this has been for political reasons or because of pressure from powerful commercial interests, your guess is as good as mine. However, both the reported Dead Bird cases appeared to have disappeared from the horizon, without any results being declared. This after Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon all did the right thing and openly reported the H5N1 positive results along with the extensive measures they were applying to control it. Maybe they are still waiting for test results so we hope they will join the International Community and fight this thing together, because ultimately we need the full resources and information exchange that the Global family can provide to eliminate it.

On a final note it should be stressed that we are not trying to nail Wild Birds as the Bad Guys of this epidemic. The disease undoubtedly emerged from poultry farming in the Far East. However, we do need to identify all the potential carriers/vectors of H5N1, also including the import and export of poultry products and air travel etc. We need to monitor its spread and examine for mutations as they occur. This disease is as lethal to wild birds as it is to poultry and, unlike other infected species, the cross Avian transmission seems very efficient. The solutions to eradicating this disease can only come from open disclosure and free exchange of information and, with the strong international Birding lobby, many of those solutions will become available for the protection of wild bird populations. They may well need it. Comments like a recent one from a professed bird lover, who said on the Web that "I'll be damned if I would report any dead bird", are counterproductive. Maybe that guy should bury his head next to his Ostrich friend!